EV Betting Guide: How to Calculate Expected Value & Find Profit 2025
Bets are fun, but long-term wins take more than luck. The key to long-term success is to spot the wagers that truly give you an edge.
That’s where EV betting comes into play. If you understand EV, it helps you think beyond single games and focus on long-term results. But what is EV in betting exactly?
To learn more, we’ll explain positive EV betting in simple steps to spot smarter bets in 2025. We’ll also help you compare your probabilities with bookmaker odds, manage your bankroll for long-term results, and more.
What Is the Expected Value?
Expected value, or EV, is a way to measure if a bet is worth placing. In short, it answers the question: “If I made this same bet many times, would I expect to win or lose money?”
Every bet has two possible outcomes: you either win or lose. EV takes the chance of each outcome, multiplies it by the profit or loss, and adds them together.
The result is the average amount you would expect to make (or lose) per bet. Furthermore, the EV can be:
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Positive EV: Means you’ve found a value bet. Over time, placing this type of wager should lead to profit.
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Negative EV: Indicates the bet favors the bookmaker. You’ll lose money if you keep making it.
How to Calculate Expected Value: Step-by-Step
To calculate the EV may look tricky at first, but it’s actually straightforward. Here’s how to break it down:
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Determine the probability of winning. If you think a particular team has a 60% chance of winning, that’s 0.6.
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Calculate the profit if you win. At decimal odds of 2.00 with a $100 stake, you’d profit $100.
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Establish the probability of losing. The chance of losing equals 1 minus your probability of winning. In this case, 1 - 0.6 = 0.4.
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Find the loss if you lose. That’s your stake: $100.
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Combine the numbers. EV = (0.6 × $100) + (0.4 × –$100) = $60 - $40 = + $20.
The result indicates a positive EV bet. If you made the same wager many times, you’d expect to earn $20 on average each time.
Therefore, the core of positive EV betting is: using numbers, not emotions, to find profitable bets.
Understanding Probability vs Implied Probability
To use EV betting properly, you need to understand the difference between real probability and implied probability.
Real probability is your own estimate of how likely something is to happen. For instance, you might believe a basketball team has a 70% chance to win based on form and stats.
On the other hand, implied probability is the chance given by the bookmaker’s odds. You can calculate it by dividing 1 by the decimal odds. So, if the odds are 2.50, the implied probability is 1 ÷ 2.50 = 0.40, or 40%.
The comparison matters because if your estimated probability is higher than the implied probability, you’ve found a positive expected value.
To illustrate, if you think a team has a 70% chance to win, but the bookmaker’s odds give only 40%, that’s a positive EV opportunity.
The Role of Vig (Bookmaker’s Margin)
When you look at top scorer odds or match lines, you’ll notice that bookmakers build in a small margin called the “vig” or “juice.” The margin makes sure they make money, no matter the result.
For example, in a coin toss with fair odds, both heads and tails should be 2.00 (50/50). A bookmaker, however, might list both at 1.91. Such a small difference adds up over time, which shifts the expected value of the bet.
For EV betting, it’s important to understand this margin. Vig makes many bets with negative EV by default. So, you need to find the best odds to identify positive expected value.
Two different bookmakers might post slightly different prices. Even a small change can turn a losing bet into a positive EV one.
Simply put, vig helps you avoid bad bets and focus on positive EV betting opportunities.
Finding Positive EV Bets
The formula alone is not enough. The real challenge is spotting positive EV bets in the market.
Here are some simple ways to do it:
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Compare odds across bookmakers. A small difference in odds can shift a wager from negative to positive expected value. Always shop around.
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Check implied vs real probability. If your research shows a higher chance of winning than the bookmaker’s odds suggest, you’ve found a positive EV betting opportunity.
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Look for soft lines. Bookmakers sometimes adjust odds slowly, especially in lower-profile sports. It gives sharp bettors a chance to grab value before the lines move.
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Use tools and calculators. EV calculators make it easier to check whether a bet has a positive or negative value.
Bankroll Management & Risk Control
Even if you find positive EV bets, you still need discipline. Without proper bankroll management, it’s easy to lose control and lose your funds.
The simplest approach is to split your football betting bankroll into units. And you can only risk 1-3% on a single wager.
Such an approach keeps you safe during losing streaks. It also helps you stay in the game long enough for positive expected value to show results.
Moreover, you should also track your bets. By writing down stakes, odds, and results, you’ll see whether your EV betting strategy is really working.
Most importantly, never chase losses. Even strong positive EV betting picks can lose in the short term.
The goal is profit over many bets, not quick wins. Patience and discipline turn good strategy into long-term success.
Conclusion
EV in betting is the difference between guessing and making informed choices. If you focus on positive EV bets, you tilt the odds in your favor, which gives you a chance to profit over the long run.
As pointed out, the approach is simple: compare true probabilities with bookmaker odds, manage your bankroll, and stay disciplined.
Also, if you use trusted platforms like Jackpot.bet, you can make this process easier. You can access competitive odds and reliable tools.
Overall, positive EV betting won’t win every single time. Yet, over many wagers, it creates a clear edge.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is EV in betting?
EV, or expected value, shows the average amount you can expect to win or lose on a bet if you made it many times.
What does positive EV mean?
A positive EV bet means the odds are in your favor. Over time, the bets should lead to profit, even if you don’t win every time.
Is EV betting only for pro bettors?
No, anyone can use EV betting. The formula is simple, and even casual bettors can apply it to make smarter choices.
It is especially easy with the tools and odds offered by Jackpot.bet.
Can positive EV betting guarantee wins?
No bet is guaranteed. Positive EV betting helps you profit in the long run, but short-term results can still go up and down.
